Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Primary Day: analysis and predictions

Today is Election Day for primaries in a lot of races, and I've got a couple of thoughts and observations, along with predictions. We can always check back here to see if I was right or way off.

  • Georgia's 4th Congressional District

  • This is the race between Cynthia "Jihad Cyndi" McKinney and Hank Johnson, both of whom are black Democrats. Jihad Cyndi's popularity took a little "hit" after she struck a Capitol police officer. Hank Johnson feels that she's an embarrassment to the district.

    ANALYSIS: Neal Boortz has a great analysis of the race:
    After the next Congress is sworn in next January, Georgia's 4th Congressional District will be represented by a black Democrat who:

    1. May well turn out to be an effective voice for the furtherance and implementation of the Democrat big-government, high-tax, income redistributionist, anti-individualistic, weaken America agenda.

    2. Will almost certainly spend the next two years as a congressional pariah with no effective voice whatsoever in congressional affairs; a person who can be counted on to flare up and completely embarrass her party; a person who can be exhibited for the next two years as the face of the Democrat Party.

    Your choice. Be a little pragmatic here. Put the emotions aside. The right needs a barking moonbat like Cynthia McKinney in office, rather than someone who might actually garner some respect inside the Beltway. Besides ... she's just wonderful material for talk radio.
    PREDICTION: Though McKinney got more votes in the primary (which had three candidates), she didn't have enough to avoid a runoff. Since then, polls have shown Johnson with a double-digit lead. Boortz has sound reasoning behind his desire for McKinney to win. However, Johnson will win, though the margin will be narrower. As in 2002, we may once again get treated with Jihad Cyndi's old man publicly blaming the Jews for his moonbat daughter's defeat.

  • Connecticut Democratic Senate primary

  • Joe Lieberman, who is liberal on nearly all issues except for the war on terror, is apparently too cozy with the commander-in-chief during war time. The nerve! Anywho, local millionaire Ned Lamont has attracted the nutroots base to help him unseat Joe for not being liberal enough.

    ANALYSIS: Polls have shown Lamont with a 10 - 16% lead over the last few weeks, though a new one over the weekend shows Lieberman narrowing the gap to 6%. The kook base in CT seems very motivated to vote today.

    PREDICTION: Ned Lamont will unseat Joe Lieberman, in a somewhat close race...though not close enough to cause Joe to repeat his 2000 performance of demanding endless recounts. However, Lieberman will fulfill his promise of running as an independent, winning the general election in November by garnering support from his own base, as well as from pragmatic CT Republicans who know that their candidate (if they have one) won't win the Senate race. If you can't have a Republican Senator, the next best thing is to screw the Democrats as much as possible.

  • Missouri Senate primaries

  • Republican Senator Jim Talent is vulnerable in a seat he won in 2002 from Jean Carnahan, the widow of the late Democratic governor Mel Carnahan. Mel ran against then-incumbent John Ashcroft in 2000, but died in a plane crash before the election. Ashcroft lost in a tide of sympathy votes, and the Democratic governor fulfilled his promise of getting Jean Carnahan to fill Mel's newly won Senate seat.

    Jean's first act as Senator was to vote against the confirmation of John Ashcroft for Attorney General, a vote that infuriated Missourians mightily. Jean was defeated by Jim Talent in 2002, and Talent is defending his seat now (in what would have marked the end of Mel's term).

    ANALYSIS: Oh, yeah...the Democratic primary. The polls have shown the leg-up candidate right now is state auditor Claire McCaskill, who has run circles around her opponent Bill Young. Talent has four opponents in the primary, none of whom seem to pose a scintilla of a threat.

    PREDICTION: Missouri has voted GOP in the last two presidential elections, as well as Talent's 2002 Senate election. However, McCaskill is pretty popular and Talent has lukewarm popularity. Rasmussen has McCaskill with a slight 3% lead (within the margin of error) over Talent in their poll, at this point. There is way too much time between now and November to figure out where the winds will blow on this one, though my gut tells me that Talent will likely eke one out in the end. I'm picking Talent in a squeaker, though I could easily be wrong about this one.