Hillary in 2008

Much has been made of Hillary running for President in 2008. Personally, I think 2006 is going to be a more important year for her. It's when she runs for re-election for her Senate seat.

Here are some scenarios for '06:

1. She doesn't run for re-election. Too risky, since it would keep her out of the limelight for over a year, which will dim her star.

2. She runs against Rudy Giuliani...and loses. Her ambitions for President die with her failed re-election bid.

3. She runs against Rudy Giuliani...and wins. She's a lock for the Dems' nomination for '08, having defeated a real New Yorker and a larger-than-life figure.

4. She runs against someone other than Rudy...and loses. Her ambitions for President die with her failed re-election bid. This scenario is unlikely, I would think.

5. She runs against someone other than Rudy...and wins. Even someone as popular as Gov. George Pataki, who probably still cannot beat her. She's a lock for the Dems' nomination for '08, having defeated a real New Yorker (and if it's Pataki, a popular executive).

As a family friend pointed out to me yesterday, he thinks the American people are too smart to elect her. I'd like to think so, too, and if you asked me to put money on it, I would think she couldn't win...her negatives are way too high.

But aside from the GOP nominee in 2008, much of the speculation will be fueled by what she does in 2006.